The New York Times best-selling book Chip War, released in October 2022, delves into the role of semiconductors in modern technology and the geopolitical equations surrounding them. While the book focuses on the US, China, and Taiwan, India is mentioned only briefly.
However, in this post-ChatGPT era, the war for chips has intensified, and India’s progress in the chip space over the past couple of years has likely altered the dynamics. A Chip War 2 is perhaps in the making.
Acclaimed author of Chip War: The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology, Chris Miller, who’s also a professor of international history at The Fletcher School at Tufts University, was recently in Bengaluru to attend the VLSI Design Conference 2025.
In addition to interacting with industry experts, Miller engaged with students and fans. His radiant and calm demeanour was evident as he absorbed the energy and enthusiasm around him.
“Until recently, there wasn’t a lot of investment, especially on the manufacturing side of the chip supply chain. That has changed in the past couple of years, driven both by the supply chain shifts we’ve seen internationally, as well as by the Indian government’s focus on this industry,” said Miller in an exclusive interview with AIM.
The author, who previously focused on Russian economic and political affairs in his writings, became interested in semiconductors after recognising a critical challenge in the Russian computing industry: its inability to produce efficient chips.
Miller strongly believes that India is in the early stages of building its chip industry. “Now there’s more investment than there ever has been in a number of different plants in different parts of the country,” he said.
Chris Miller at the International Conference on VLSI Design 2025, Bengaluru
The India Chapter
Viksit Bharat 2047, the government of India’s vision to transform the country into a developed nation by 2047, focuses on India becoming self-reliant. To become a $30 trillion economy by 2047, India must develop a chipset value chain to reduce dependence on imports.
In this context, Miller explained the tedious, decade-long process that chip companies undergo to establish themselves. “If you look at industry leaders like Taiwan or Korea, it took them decades to build their chip industry. Starting in the 1970s, it wasn’t until the 2000s that they became world-class players,” he said.
Miller acknowledged India’s progress in the past couple of years but stressed that it’s a long haul. “We should expect continued development, but [realise that] it’s not going to go from an initial level to Taiwan-level overnight.”
Miller identified talent and infrastructure as two key challenges in India’s path to progress in the chip space.
With the country moving into chip manufacturing, testing and packaging, the need for talent in all these disciplines becomes crucial. On the infrastructure side, the requirement for different chemicals, materials and tools becomes indispensable.
“All that is eminently buildable, but it takes time and capacity to build out. I think we’re seeing that happen right now—but again, it can’t happen overnight,” he said.
Focus on Design
While manufacturing will take time, Miller believes India should continue to focus on its design prowess.
“I think India has a large talent base in chip design because it’s developed investment from a whole variety of international firms in India. And that’s a huge asset. That arguably makes India the world’s first or second country in terms of chip design talent, right next to the US,” he said.
Currently, 20% of the global semiconductor design talent comes from India, with over 35,000 engineers engaged in chip design. South Korea, for instance, which held a 17.7% share of the global semiconductor market (in 2022), has extensive manufacturing expertise but very little competence in chip design, unlike India.
Miller also noted that since India is a relatively new entrant in semiconductor manufacturing, its focus should initially be on established technologies rather than cutting-edge processes such as 2nm or 3nm chips.
He explained that this approach aligned with the trends in Europe, Israel, and Singapore, where investments were concentrated in mature technologies.
People often assume that established technologies stop evolving and no longer experience advancements. “That’s actually not true. There’s a lot of innovation in older process technologies that are being repurposed for new applications. And, with AI, that’s going to accelerate because you’re going to use certain types of use cases, older technologies, and build new capabilities into them,” said Miller.
Taiwan: The Superpower Remains
TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited), the current superpower in the semiconductor manufacturing space, contributes to 99% of the world’s AI accelerators.
“I wouldn’t bet against TSMC. The expertise they’ve built, the track record they have in driving technology forward, and the trust they’ve built with their customers is extraordinary,” said Miller.
TSMC’s customers, including NVIDIA, AMD, Broadcom, and others, bet their products on its ability to manufacture them. In turn, the relationships it has built with these customers form the core of TSMC’s success.
While these companies remain critical enablers, Miller pointed out that big-tech companies such as Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Google, are also making in-house chips.
“This is a trend that’s going to catch on even further in the coming years because companies realise that if they want to harness AI, specialised silicon designed around their specific workloads will [be essential to] reduce the power consumption and cost of running AI in their systems,” he mulled.
Customisation and cost efficiency are the key advantages companies are looking for when building in-house chips. Furthermore, having in-house alternatives gives them the leverage to negotiate better prices with NVIDIA, which otherwise charges a premium for its chips.
Despite the efforts of other countries in the chip space and China’s significant progress, Miller believes that Taiwan will continue to remain at the forefront. “I would never bet against the Chinese, but I’d also never bet against the Taiwanese, and the Taiwanese are ahead right now,” he concluded.
