India’s semiconductor aspirations have captured global attention with investments from companies and investors around the world. The country is setting ambitious goals to become a major player in the chip manufacturing landscape. However, one of the industry’s most influential voices has suggested that the road ahead may be “inevitably” longer than anticipated.
In an exclusive interview with AIM, Chris Miller, the author of ‘Chip War: The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology’ said that India is in the early stages of building out its chip industry.
While Miller outlined India’s potential, saying, “India is now seeing more investment than ever in semiconductor manufacturing and design”, he also highlighted challenges. According to him, it will be an “inevitably decades-long process”.
Miller stressed the need to foster homegrown companies to create a robust domestic ecosystem. Drawing comparisons to industry leaders like Taiwan and South Korea, he said, “India is not going to go from an initial level to Taiwan’s level overnight…It took countries like Taiwan and Korea decades to build out their chip industry starting in the 1970s.”
Race with China, Taiwan, and the US
India’s vision of becoming a semiconductor powerhouse by 2047 aligns with its broader ‘Viksit Bharat’ mission.
Miller advocated for strategic planning and consistent investment. “A single plant can take three or four years to build once you start construction, and there’s usually a couple of years of planning beforehand, so this industry is used to thinking in terms of decades,” he said.
The global semiconductor race is defined by one name: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC). Producing 99% of the world’s AI accelerators, TSMC has become indispensable in powering the technological advancements of AI-driven industries.
Regardless, Miller added, “India is arguably one of the world’s top countries in chip design talent, second only to the United States.”
Chips now represent the largest flow of goods into China. This highlights their strategic importance in the geopolitical tug-of-war between the US and China.
Every major AI system, from generative models like ChatGPT to advanced data centres, relies on TSMC’s cutting-edge chips.
The stakes in the semiconductor race are immense. As Miller believes Moore’s Law, which predicts the doubling of transistors every two years, “is changing”, TSMC pioneers alternatives like 3D stacking and advanced packaging. These innovations enable continued improvements in AI chip performance and secure TSMC’s leadership.
While competitors like NVIDIA and Broadcom play vital roles in design, TSMC’s scale and expertise make its dominance clear.
Leveraging Established Technologies
On the production front, Miller advised India to start with established technologies rather than diving into cutting-edge innovations like 2-nanometre or 3-nanometre nodes.
While countries like the US and China forge ahead with advanced 3–5 nm chip production, India finds itself grappling with foundational challenges. Despite renewed efforts and increased budgetary allocations, India’s semiconductor ambitions remain distant.
Simultaneously, China’s reported breakthrough with 3 nm chips challenges the US-led sanctions that sought to stifle its progress. Facilities in India still grapple at mature nodes like 28 nm and 40 nm.
Encapsulating India’s predicament aptly, semiconductor analyst Arun Mampazhy said, “It’s crucial that we begin rather than engage in an endless debate over the best starting point. India really does not have much of a choice in this.”
The Indian government has shown a commitment to the sector with the interim Budget’s ₹6,903 crore allocation, which is more than doubling the previous year’s amount. However, experts argue that funding alone cannot bridge decades of technological and infrastructural deficits.
Miller also pointed out that many nations, including European countries and Israel, are following this practical approach. “There’s a lot of innovation happening in older process technologies, especially as they’re being repurposed for applications like AI,” he noted.
Challenges in Chip Talent and Infrastructure
Miller identified talent and infrastructure as the two major hurdles to India’s ambitions. While India has considerable expertise in chip design, expanding into manufacturing, testing, and packaging requires specialised skills across multiple disciplines.
“It takes time to build this talent, with different educational backgrounds, internships, and work training,” Miller explained.
Infrastructure development is another critical area, particularly for materials, chemicals, and specialised tools required for semiconductor manufacturing. As India advances into semiconductor manufacturing, it requires the development of specialised infrastructure, including unique chemicals, materials, and tools.
While Miller expressed optimism about the current pace of progress, he reiterated that building full-scale capacity “will likely take a decade”. “Progress in this area is already visible, with ongoing efforts to establish the necessary infrastructure,” he concluded.
